TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET: If the Devils win, the market will resolve to "Devils". If the Rangers win, the market will resolve to "Rangers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on a binary YES/NO basis where both a Rangers win and a Devils win result in YES, while Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets (moneyline, over/under totals, and spread) that each resolve to specific outcomes. The platforms use fundamentally different market structures for the same underlying game.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting that the game occurs and produces a winner (either team). On Polymarket, you must choose which specific outcome you want to bet on—moneyline (which team wins), total goals (over/under thresholds), or spread (margin of victory). Your Kalshi YES resolves the same way regardless of which team wins; your Polymarket bets depend entirely on which market you select.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi uses a single binary market structure where the market resolves YES if either the Rangers or the Devils wins the game on March 31, 2026. The resolution rule states 'If NYR Rangers wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If NJ Devils wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning both outcomes trigger the same YES resolution.Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket offers four separate markets covering different aspects of the same game: a moneyline market (resolves to 'Devils' or 'Rangers'), three over/under total-goals markets (O/U 4.5, O/U 5.5, O/U 6.5, O/U 7.5), and a spread market (Devils -1.5). Each market has distinct resolution logic tied to its specific outcome category rather than a simple binary YES/NO.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.