TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Team Aether and shimmer in the Thunderpick World Championship North American Group A, initially scheduled for April 26 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Aether" if Team Aether win the match against shimmer. This market will resolve to "shimmer" if shimmer win the match against Team Aether. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's binary Yes/No structure lacks explicit edge-case definitions (cancellation, delay, forfeit, incomplete play) that Polymarket addresses in detail. This creates ambiguity in settlement if the match does not complete normally.Hero Tip:
For Polymarket markets, resolution is deterministic and well-defined across all scenarios. For Kalshi, assume standard esports convention (no-play = no resolution, likely 50-50 or void), but confirm with Kalshi support if match is delayed >7 days, canceled, or ends in forfeit before a winner is determined.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Comprehensive rule set covering series winner, map winners, round/kill parity, and handicap. Explicit 7-day delay threshold: if match delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolves 50-50. Incomplete matches: if series begins but not completed, map-level markets resolve based on completed maps; series markets resolve 50-50 unless one team wins via opponent forfeiture mid-series (then resolves to winning team). Forfeits/walkovers before play: series resolves 50-50. Key quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'Kalshi:
Single binary market: 'If Team Aether wins...then Yes. If shimmer wins...then Yes.' No explicit handling of cancellation, delay, forfeit, or incomplete play. Assumes normal match completion. Key quote: 'If Team Aether wins the...match...then the market resolves to Yes. If shimmer wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' (No else clause or edge-case guidance.)
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