TOTAL VOLUME:

$61.9b

24H VOL:

$277,664,645

24H TRANSACTIONS:

600,114,870

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,379,707,856

581,715

Markets across

14,439

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,118

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

50%

VS.

Kalshi:

50%

BETA
polymarket
kalshi

Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Johnny Speeds (BO1) - Conquest of Prague? Odds & Prediction Markets

Volume:
$68,492
PredictionHero
Match Winner 100%
polymarket
Johnny Speeds 0%
kalshi
Sinners 100%
kalshi
Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Jun…020406080100

Closed: Apr 13, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Outcome
Chance %
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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Trade

Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Sinners and Johnny Speeds in the Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage, initially scheduled for April 13 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Sinners" if Sinners win the match against Johnny Speeds. This market will resolve to "Johnny Speeds" if Johnny Speeds win the match against Sinners. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket defines three distinct markets (Match Winner, Map 1 Odd/Even Rounds, Map 1 Odd/Even Kills) with detailed resolution rules tied to HLTV as primary source and 50-50 fallback conditions for cancellations, delays, forfeits, and no-plays. Kalshi defines only a single binary market (Johnny Speeds wins OR Sinners wins) with no specification of resolution source, no handling of cancellation/delay/forfeit scenarios, and fundamentally different scope—Kalshi's market resolves YES for either outcome, making it logically incoherent as a prediction market.

Hero Tip:

Critical mismatch: Polymarket offers three granular, resolvable markets with clear source hierarchy and edge-case rules. Kalshi's market is malformed—it resolves YES regardless of which team wins, rendering it unresolvable as a binary prediction. Do not trade on Kalshi's market as written; it violates basic prediction market logic. Polymarket's markets are tradeable and auditable.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket:

    Outlier (in scope and resolvability): Polymarket offers three separate, well-defined markets—Match Winner (Sinners vs Johnny Speeds), Map 1 Odd/Even Rounds, and Map 1 Odd/Even Kills—each with explicit resolution rules, HLTV as primary source, 2-hour fallback window, and comprehensive edge-case handling (cancellation, delay >7 days, forfeit, walkover, remake). Each market has a clear binary or ternary outcome. Quote: 'The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.'
  • Kalshi:

    Outlier (in logic and resolvability): Kalshi defines a single market with two resolution conditions that both resolve to YES: 'If Johnny Speeds wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Sinners wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction—the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes, making it unresolvable as a binary prediction market. No resolution source is specified, no edge-case handling is provided, and no NO outcome is defined. Quote: 'If Johnny Speeds wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Sinners wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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