TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket round 1 match between regain and FlyQuest RED in the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 2 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "regain" if regain win the match against FlyQuest RED. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest RED" if FlyQuest RED win the match against regain. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines a complete match resolution framework with detailed rules for forfeits, walkovers, delays, and incomplete matches across multiple markets (series winner, map winners, map statistics). Kalshi provides only a binary YES/NO resolution tied to match outcome without any specification of how forfeits, walkovers, delays, or incomplete matches are handled, creating a fundamental logical contradiction: Polymarket's markets could resolve 50-50 in scenarios where Kalshi's market would resolve YES or NO based on undefined criteria.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms without explicit clarification from Kalshi on how forfeits, walkovers, delays beyond 7 days, and incomplete matches resolve. If regain or FlyQuest RED wins via forfeit/walkover before the match starts, Polymarket resolves 50-50 but Kalshi's outcome is undefined. If the match is delayed beyond April 9 without a winner, Polymarket resolves 50-50 but Kalshi provides no guidance. This creates unhedgeable risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket provides exhaustive resolution rules across 8 distinct markets (series handicap, series winner, map 1/2/3 winners, map 1/2/3 kill/round parity) with explicit 50-50 resolution for forfeits, walkovers, delays beyond 7 days, incomplete matches, and clinched series. Key quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi provides only a binary YES/NO framework with no specification of how forfeits, walkovers, delays, incomplete matches, or tie scenarios are resolved. The market states 'If regain wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If FlyQuest RED wins...then the market resolves to Yes' but contains no contingency rules for non-completion, forfeiture, or delay scenarios. This creates a logical gap where multiple outcomes map to undefined resolution states.
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