TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Natus Vincere and B8 in the BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A, scheduled for March 18 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against B8. This market will resolve to "B8" if B8 win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi's markets (items 1-2) resolve based on tournament outcome regardless of the specific BO3 match result, while Polymarket's markets (items 3-23) resolve based on the actual BO3 match between Natus Vincere and B8. This creates a logical contradiction: Kalshi can resolve YES for either team winning the tournament, but Polymarket requires a definitive match winner or 50-50 resolution.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. Kalshi's tournament-outcome markets may resolve YES even if the BO3 match is canceled, forfeited, or delayed beyond 7 days (triggering 50-50 on Polymarket). Conversely, if the BO3 match completes with a clear winner, Polymarket resolves definitively while Kalshi's resolution depends on the entire tournament outcome, which may not yet be determined.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's two markets (items 1-2) resolve YES if either Natus Vincere OR B8 wins the entire BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 tournament, not the specific BO3 match. The resolution statement 'If Natus Vincere wins the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If B8 wins the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' both trigger YES, making both markets simultaneously resolvable to YES depending on tournament outcome. This is decoupled from the BO3 match result itself.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard esports match resolution: Polymarket's 21 markets (items 3-23) all resolve based on the actual BO3 match result between Natus Vincere and B8 on March 18, 2026. Core logic states 'This market will resolve to Natus Vincere if Natus Vincere win the match against B8' and 'This market will resolve to B8 if B8 win the match against Natus Vincere,' with 50-50 fallback if the match is canceled, forfeited, or delayed beyond 7 days without completion. All map-specific and aggregate markets depend on match completion and actual in-game outcomes.
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