TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between fnatic and Leo Team in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 27 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against Leo Team. This market will resolve to "Leo Team" if Leo Team win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's match outcome market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves YES if fnatic wins OR if Leo Team wins, making it a tautology that cannot fail to resolve YES. This renders the market unresolvable as a predictive instrument. Polymarket defines clear, mutually exclusive outcomes (fnatic vs Leo Team) with comprehensive edge-case rules.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's primary match market is logically invalid and should not be traded. All substantive resolution logic derives from Polymarket's framework: official HLTV reporting, 2-hour publication window, 7-day delay threshold, and explicit handling of forfeits, walkovers, and incomplete matches. Treat Kalshi as a data error and resolve all markets using Polymarket criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Match outcome market states: 'If fnatic wins...then resolves YES. If Leo Team wins...then resolves YES.' This is a logical tautology—both possible outcomes map to YES, making the market non-falsifiable and unresolvable as a prediction market.Polymarket:
Match outcome market resolves to 'fnatic' if fnatic wins, 'Leo Team' if Leo Team wins. Cancellations, ties, delays beyond 7 days without play, and forfeits/walkovers resolve 50-50. Incomplete matches with one team winning by opponent forfeit resolve to the winning team. Primary source: HLTV.org within 2 hours; consensus reporting thereafter.
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