TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Alliance and ReThink in the Journey Group D, initially scheduled for March 26 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against ReThink. This market will resolve to "ReThink" if ReThink win the match against Alliance. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins (making the market always YES), while Polymarket resolves to the specific match winner (Alliance or ReThink). This logical contradiction makes Kalshi's market unresolvable as stated.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market as written—it contains a logical error that guarantees YES resolution regardless of outcome. Polymarket's markets are resolvable and use standard match-outcome logic. Trade only on Polymarket for this event group.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's resolution rule states 'If ReThink wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Alliance wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where every possible outcome (either team winning) results in YES. This makes the market unresolvable and uninterpretable.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves to the specific match winner—'Alliance' if Alliance wins, 'ReThink' if ReThink wins—with clear tie-breaking rules for cancellations, delays beyond 7 days, and forfeits (all resolve 50-50). Polymarket also offers granular markets for individual map winners, map statistics (odd/even rounds and kills), series length (O/U 2.5), and map handicap, each with consistent logic tied to match completion and HLTV.org as primary source.
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