TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Connecticut Huskies face Michigan Wolverines in a college basketball game scheduled for April 6 at 8:50 PM ET. The event group encompasses three related markets: moneyline (head-to-head winner), spread (Michigan favored by 7.5 points), and over/under total points (144.5). All markets resolve based on the final score including overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi offers 31 separate binary markets covering discrete point-spread outcomes (each market resolves YES for only one specific margin range), while Polymarket offers 3 unified markets (moneyline, spread, totals) that resolve based on final game outcome. A single game result will trigger YES on exactly one Kalshi market but may trigger YES on multiple Polymarket markets simultaneously, creating irreconcilable settlement divergence.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group — they settle on incompatible outcome spaces. On Kalshi, you are betting on a specific margin bucket (e.g., Michigan wins by 7-8 points); on Polymarket, you are betting on broader outcomes (Michigan wins by 7+ points, or total score exceeds 144). A single game result resolves different subsets of markets on each platform.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi partitions the outcome space into 31 mutually exclusive point-spread buckets, each with its own binary YES/NO market. For example, market 4 resolves YES if 'Michigan wins by more than 1.5 points', market 5 resolves YES if 'Michigan wins by more than 4.5 points', etc. Only one Kalshi market will resolve YES per game outcome. This creates a granular, non-overlapping settlement model where each market covers a specific margin threshold.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 3 independent market types (moneyline, spread, totals) that resolve in parallel based on final game score. For example, the moneyline resolves to 'Michigan Wolverines' if Michigan wins by any margin, the spread (-7.5) resolves to 'Michigan Wolverines' if Michigan wins by 8+ points, and the totals resolve based on combined score. Multiple Polymarket markets can resolve YES simultaneously from a single game outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.