TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Colombia and Croatia will compete in an international friendly soccer match scheduled for March 26, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. This is a single match event with three mutually exclusive outcomes: Colombia win, Croatia win, or draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (Colombia wins, Croatia wins, Tie) that each resolve YES independently, while Polymarket structures three distinct binary markets (Colombia wins, Draw, Croatia wins) where exactly one resolves YES and the others resolve NO. This creates a fundamental logical incompatibility: under Kalshi's rules, multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously, whereas under Polymarket's rules, only one outcome resolves YES.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets across platforms, be aware that a Colombia victory will resolve YES on Kalshi's Colombia market AND potentially on other Kalshi markets depending on interpretation, but on Polymarket only the Colombia market resolves YES while Draw and Croatia markets resolve NO. Verify which platform's structure matches your intended bet before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi operates three independent binary markets where each resolves YES if its outcome occurs (Colombia wins, Croatia wins, or Tie occurs). The rules state 'If [outcome] wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes' for each outcome separately, implying all three markets could theoretically resolve YES if the match result matches their condition. Key quote: 'If Colombia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Croatia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match outcome. Each market explicitly states 'If [outcome], this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' establishing that only one outcome can resolve YES while the other two resolve NO. Key quote: 'If Colombia wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (applied identically to each of the three outcome markets).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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