TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 15, 2026 between Club Libertad and CA Rosario Central.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three separate binary markets (Libertad win, Draw, Rosario win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi presents three markets that each independently resolve YES based on their respective outcome. This creates a fundamental logical contradiction: under Polymarket logic, only one market can resolve YES; under Kalshi logic, all three markets resolve YES simultaneously for any given match result.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade these markets between platforms. A Polymarket YES on 'Libertad wins' is mutually exclusive with a Polymarket YES on 'Draw', but on Kalshi all three outcomes resolve YES in sequence depending on the result. Arbitrage is impossible due to the structural incompatibility of the market designs.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures this as a three-way mutually exclusive outcome group where exactly one of the three markets (Libertad win, Draw, Rosario win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Key quote: 'If Club Libertad wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — the word 'Otherwise' encompasses both Draw and Rosario win outcomes, making them mutually exclusive.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three independent binary markets, each resolving YES if its specific outcome occurs (Libertad wins → Market 1 YES; Rosario wins → Market 2 YES; Tie → Market 3 YES). All three markets resolve YES for the actual match result. Key quote: 'If Libertad wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Rosario wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' — each condition independently triggers a YES resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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