TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between CF Montréal and Philadelphia Union.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi presents three mutually exclusive outcomes (Philadelphia wins, Montreal wins, Tie) as three separate YES/NO markets, each resolving to Yes if its condition is met. This means all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously after any match conclusion, violating basic market logic. Polymarket correctly structures the same event as three properly exclusive markets (Montreal Win, Draw, Philadelphia Win) where exactly one resolves YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's Montreal vs Philadelphia markets. The platform's resolution logic is fundamentally broken—all three outcome markets would resolve YES at the same time, making them unsuitable for prediction or hedging. Polymarket's markets are logically sound and should be used instead.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier (correct logic): Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Markets are: 'Will CF Montréal win' (YES if Montreal wins, NO otherwise), 'Will the game end in a draw' (YES if draw, NO otherwise), and 'Will Philadelphia Union win' (YES if Philadelphia wins, NO otherwise). Primary source is official MLS statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.Kalshi:
Outlier (contradictory logic): Kalshi presents the same three outcomes as three separate markets, each with a resolution rule stating 'If [outcome] wins/ties, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: after any match, all three markets would simultaneously resolve YES because one of the three conditions (Philadelphia wins, Montreal wins, or Tie) must be true. The platform fails to establish mutual exclusivity, making the market group unresolvable and unsuitable for trading.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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