TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Friday, March 20, 2026 between CF Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia AC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Casa Pia win, Estrela win, Draw), where exactly one resolves YES. Kalshi offers three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES if any outcome occurs, making it logically impossible for all three Kalshi markets to resolve consistently to the same result.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent payoff structures. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES regardless of outcome, creating a logical contradiction. Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally unresolvable as written.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Casa Pia win, Estrela win, or Draw) will resolve YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market has identical resolution source (Liga Portugal official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours) and scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Key quote: 'If Casa Pia AC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — applied separately to each of the three outcomes.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three markets with identical resolution conditions but contradictory logic: Market 1 resolves YES if Tie wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Estrela wins, Market 3 resolves YES if Casa Pia wins. Since exactly one outcome must occur, all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously, violating basic market logic. Key quote: 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Estrela Amadora wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Casa Pia wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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