TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 19 at 8:00PM ET: If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed market specifications with clear resolution criteria for 50 markets covering moneyline, spreads, totals, player props, and halftime markets. Kalshi provides only two vague binary markets that lack essential details: no specified resolution source, no threshold definitions, no handling of postponements or cancellations, and no clarity on which team is home or away. This creates a fundamental data integrity failure on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group without clarification. Polymarket markets are fully resolvable with explicit NBA.com sourcing and clear thresholds. Kalshi's markets are unresolvable as written—they lack source specification, threshold detail, and contingency rules. Request Kalshi to publish detailed resolution criteria matching Polymarket's standard before placing trades.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Aligned with comprehensive sports betting standards: Polymarket specifies 50 distinct markets with explicit resolution sources (NBA.com official box scores), clear thresholds (e.g., 'Cavaliers win by 14 or more points' for spread -13.5), contingency rules for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 resolution), player inactivity rules (resolves NO), and overtime inclusion. Example: 'This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bulls".'Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi provides only two binary markets with no resolution source, no threshold specification, no contingency rules, and no player/timing details. The markets state only 'If Cleveland wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Chicago wins... then the market resolves to Yes' with no definition of what constitutes a win, no source for verification, no handling of postponement/cancellation, and no clarity on game timing or location. This is a critical data integrity failure.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.