TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 26 at 9:00PM ET: If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the Utah win, the market will resolve to "Utah". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different underlying events. Kalshi settles on goal-differential outcomes (margin of victory), while Polymarket settles on total goals scored and moneyline winner. These are logically incompatible resolution frameworks for the same game.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Kalshi and Polymarket on this group. A Kalshi YES (e.g., Washington wins by >2.5) and a Polymarket Under 5.5 can both occur or both fail independently. Kalshi's markets tell you nothing about total goals; Polymarket's totals tell you nothing about margin. Treat these as separate event spaces.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi resolves exclusively on goal differential (margin of victory). All four markets require either team to win by a specified threshold (>1.5 or >2.5 goals). Example: 'If Washington wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' This framework is independent of total goals and does not address combined scoring.Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket resolves on total combined goals (Over/Under markets at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds), moneyline winner (Capitals vs. Utah), and Utah spread (-1.5, equivalent to Utah winning by 2+). Example: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Capitals and Utah combine to score 6 or more goals.' Polymarket's logic is orthogonal to Kalshi's margin-based framework.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.