TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
On April 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, the Washington Capitals will face the New Jersey Devils in an NHL regular season game. Markets cover three dimensions: (1) moneyline winner (Capitals vs. Devils), (2) total goals scored by both teams combined across four thresholds (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and (3) margin-of-victory spreads (either team winning by >1.5 or >2.5 goals). All markets include shootout adjustments and 50-50 resolution for full cancellations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes for the same game. Kalshi settles on margin-of-victory outcomes (spread-based), while Polymarket settles on both moneyline (winner) and total goals (over/under) outcomes. The platforms do not directly contradict each other, but they measure different aspects of the game.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on margin of victory (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal spreads). If you trade on Polymarket, you can bet on the winner, total goals, or specific spreads. Your Kalshi position resolves independently of Polymarket's moneyline or total-goals markets. Coordinate your hedges carefully: a 3-1 Capitals win resolves YES on both Kalshi markets AND YES on Polymarket's Capitals moneyline, but the Kalshi markets ignore total-goals outcomes entirely.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers only margin-of-victory (spread) markets. All four Kalshi markets resolve YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, with no moneyline or total-goals options. Key quote: 'If New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Washington wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers moneyline (Capitals vs. Devils winner), four total-goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and two spread markets (Devils -1.5, Capitals -1.5). These markets resolve independently on different settlement values: winner, combined goals, or margin of victory. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Capitals and Devils combine to score 6 or more goals' and 'This market will resolve to Capitals if the Capitals win the game by 2 or more goals.'
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