TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 1 at 8:30PM ET: If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to "Canucks". If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi settles on goal-differential outcomes (spread-based markets), while Polymarket settles on combined total goals (over/under markets) and moneyline outcomes. These markets measure different aspects of the same game and will not necessarily align.Hero Tip:
If you trade across both platforms, understand that Kalshi's spread markets (Colorado by 2+ or 3+ goals, or Vancouver by 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals) will resolve independently of Polymarket's total-goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and moneyline. A high-scoring Canucks win could resolve YES on Polymarket's moneyline but NO on Kalshi's Avalanche spreads. Conversely, a narrow Avalanche win resolves YES on Kalshi spreads but may resolve Under on Polymarket's totals. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful scenario mapping.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four spread-based markets that resolve YES only if one team wins by a specific goal margin (Colorado by 2.5+, Colorado by 1.5+, Vancouver by 1.5+, or Vancouver by 2.5+). Resolution depends entirely on goal differential, not total goals or moneyline winner. Key quote: 'If Colorado wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Vancouver wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four over/under total-goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), one moneyline market (Canucks vs. Avalanche), and one spread market (Avalanche -1.5). The over/under markets resolve based on combined team goals regardless of which team wins; the moneyline resolves on winner only; the spread resolves if Avalanche wins by 2+. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Canucks and Avalanche combine to score 6 or more goals' (O/U 5.5) and 'If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to Canucks' (moneyline).
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