TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 19 at 7:00PM ET: If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to "Red Wings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets resolve on moneyline outcomes (either team winning), while Polymarket offers multiple distinct market types (moneyline, over/under totals at four different thresholds, and spread betting). Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally incompatible with Polymarket's total goals and spread markets, creating separate and non-comparable settlement universes.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi moneyline bets with Polymarket total or spread bets expecting consistent outcomes. A Kalshi YES (either team wins) tells you nothing about whether Polymarket's O/U 6.5 resolves Over or Under. Treat each platform's market type as independent.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers only moneyline resolution. Both markets (MTL wins OR DET wins) resolve to Yes, meaning the market group guarantees a YES resolution regardless of outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: 'If MTL Canadiens wins the Montreal at Detroit professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If DET Red Wings wins the Montreal at Detroit professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' One team must win, so YES is guaranteed.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate market types: (1) Moneyline (Canadiens vs. Red Wings), (2) Over/Under 4.5 goals, (3) Over/Under 5.5 goals, (4) Over/Under 6.5 goals, (5) Over/Under 7.5 goals, (6) Spread Red Wings -1.5, (7) Spread Canadiens -1.5. Each resolves independently based on final score, with 50-50 resolution if the game is canceled entirely. These markets are logically independent and do not guarantee any particular outcome.
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