TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 28 at 7:00PM ET: If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5+ and 2.5+ goal wins), while Polymarket settles on total combined goals (Over/Under markets) and moneyline outcome. These represent fundamentally different event types: Kalshi focuses on win margin, Polymarket focuses on total scoring and winner.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, you are predicting whether one team wins by a large margin (1.5+ or 2.5+ goals). If you bet on Polymarket, you are predicting either the total combined goals scored or which team wins outright. A 3-1 Montreal win resolves YES on Kalshi (Montreal >1.5) but may resolve differently on Polymarket depending on which market you chose (e.g., Over 7.5 would be NO since only 4 total goals). Do not assume outcomes transfer between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based exclusively on margin of victory. Markets resolve YES if Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals, Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals, Nashville wins by over 2.5 goals, or Montreal wins by over 2.5 goals. This is a win-margin-focused framework with no total-goals component.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate market types: moneyline (Canadiens vs. Predators winner), and three Over/Under total-goals markets at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals. Resolution depends on which specific market is selected, not on margin of victory. For example, a 2-1 Montreal win resolves YES on Kalshi (Montreal >1.5) but resolves Under on all Polymarket total-goals markets.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.