TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
On March 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, the Montreal Canadiens will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in an NHL regular season game. Markets track three dimensions: (1) the winner (Canadiens vs. Lightning moneyline), and (2) total combined goals scored, with multiple over/under thresholds ranging from 2.5 to 9.5 goals. All resolution determinations include overtime and shootout periods, with shootout wins counting as +1 goal for the winning team.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi markets resolve YES if the stated threshold is exceeded (e.g., 'over 6.5' means 7+), while Polymarket explicitly states the actual goal count required for Over resolution (e.g., 'O/U 6.5' resolves Over at 7+), creating identical outcomes but with different stated semantics in their rule descriptions.Hero Tip:
Both platforms will resolve identically for any given final score, so there is no trading divergence. However, if you are reading market descriptions carefully, note that Kalshi uses 'over X.5' phrasing while Polymarket uses 'O/U X.5' with explicit goal counts in the description. Verify the actual threshold (e.g., 7 goals for the 6.5 market) before placing bets to avoid confusion.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight over/under markets on total combined goals (thresholds: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5), each resolving YES if the stated threshold is exceeded. For example, 'If over 6.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes.' Kalshi also includes a moneyline market (Canadiens vs. Lightning winner).Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five markets: four over/under markets on total combined goals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) with explicit resolution thresholds stated in descriptions (e.g., 'O/U 6.5' resolves Over at 7 or more goals), one moneyline market (Canadiens vs. Lightning winner), and one spread market (Lightning -1.5). Polymarket includes detailed postponement and cancellation clauses, and specifies that shootout goals add one to the winning team's score.
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