TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group comprises seven interconnected markets covering a Serie A match between Cagliari Calcio and SSC Napoli scheduled for March 20, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET. Markets span spread betting (±1.5 and ±2.5 goal margins), total goals over/under (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 thresholds), and both-teams-to-score outcomes. All markets resolve based on the official final score from legaseriea.it within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with no extra time or penalties counted.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different market structures to cover spread outcomes. Polymarket offers separate binary markets for each spread threshold (Napoli -1.5, Napoli -2.5, Cagliari -1.5, Cagliari -2.5), while Kalshi uses four Yes/No markets that each resolve Yes if either team wins by a specified margin, creating fundamentally different settlement logic for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets across platforms, note that Polymarket's spread markets are mutually exclusive (only one resolves YES per outcome), whereas Kalshi's markets can have multiple Yes resolutions from a single final score. For example, a 3-0 Napoli win resolves YES on both Kalshi markets 2 and 3, but on Polymarket only the Napoli -2.5 market resolves YES. Verify your position structure matches the platform's settlement model.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers binary spread markets where each market resolves YES for one team only if they win by a specified margin, and NO otherwise. For Napoli -1.5, 'This market will resolve to SSC Napoli if SSC Napoli win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Cagliari Calcio.' This creates mutually exclusive outcomes across the four spread markets.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi uses four separate Yes/No markets where each resolves Yes if either team wins by the specified margin, allowing multiple markets to resolve Yes from the same match outcome. Market 1 resolves Yes if 'Cagliari wins by more than 1.5 goals' OR 'Napoli wins by more than 1.5 goals'; Market 2 resolves Yes if 'Napoli wins by more than 2.5 goals' OR 'Cagliari wins by more than 2.5 goals.' A single final score can trigger Yes on multiple Kalshi markets simultaneously.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.