TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the March 10, 2026 Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CA Tigre and CA Vélez Sarsfield. Markets predict whether Tigre will win, Vélez will win, or the match will end in a draw, all measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally different market structures and cancellation protocols. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation outcomes; Kalshi uses a single unified market where all outcomes resolve identically. Additionally, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on cancellation while its win markets resolve NO, creating a logical asymmetry.Hero Tip:
Traders should recognize that Polymarket's draw market and win markets have opposite cancellation payoffs, making them non-equivalent hedges. Kalshi's unified structure eliminates cancellation risk differentiation. Verify the official AFA fixture schedule and any postponement announcements before March 10, 2026. If cancellation is a material concern, Polymarket's draw market offers asymmetric upside.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three independent binary markets: (1) Tigre win YES/NO, (2) Draw YES/NO, (3) Vélez win YES/NO. Cancellation logic is asymmetric: win markets resolve NO on cancellation; draw market resolves YES on cancellation. All markets remain open if postponed until completion. Resolution window: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Single unified market covering all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Tigre win, draw, Vélez win). All outcomes resolve YES after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided; implicit assumption is that one of the three outcomes will occur. No mention of postponement or cancellation handling.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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