TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 21 at 10:00PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines comprehensive resolution rules for a complete NBA game (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props, first-half markets) with detailed postponement and cancellation clauses, while Kalshi provides only a binary yes/no structure that resolves YES for either team winning, creating a logical contradiction where Kalshi cannot distinguish between Bucks victory and Suns victory.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market as written—it resolves YES regardless of which team wins, making it fundamentally unresolvable. All meaningful settlement logic comes from Polymarket. If you hold Kalshi contracts, clarify the actual resolution rule with the platform before the game.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier (in completeness): Polymarket provides 86 distinct markets with granular resolution rules covering moneyline (Bucks vs. Suns), multiple spread thresholds (Suns -10.5, -11.5), full-game and first-half totals (O/U 216.5–220.5 and 111.5–113.5), and 40 player prop markets (points, rebounds, assists) with explicit inactive-player clauses and NBA.com box score sourcing. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation resolves 50-50. Example: 'This market will resolve to Suns if the Suns win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Bucks.'Kalshi:
Outlier (in logic): Kalshi states 'If Phoenix wins the Milwaukee at Phoenix professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Milwaukee wins the Milwaukee at Phoenix professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: both outcomes resolve YES, leaving no NO resolution path and making the market unresolvable.
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