TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a single professional English Premier League soccer match between Brighton & Hove Albion FC and Arsenal FC scheduled for March 4, 2026. The markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: Brighton win, Arsenal win, or draw, resolved based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a unique cancellation clause that resolves to Yes if the game is canceled with no make-up, while all other markets (Polymarket win markets and Kalshi) resolve to No or remain unresolved. This creates asymmetric payoff logic across the outcome set.Hero Tip:
In a full cancellation scenario, Polymarket draw resolves Yes but win markets resolve No, creating a logical gap. Kalshi markets all resolve Yes (covering all outcomes), suggesting Kalshi treats cancellation as a catch-all. Traders should clarify with platforms whether cancellation is truly possible and which resolution logic will apply.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets: Brighton Win (resolves No if canceled), Draw (resolves Yes if canceled), Arsenal Win (resolves No if canceled). Key quote: Draw market states 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "Yes".' Win markets state 'this market will resolve "No".' This creates a logical inconsistency where cancellation produces a Yes on draw but No on wins.Kalshi:
Single market with three mutually exclusive outcomes (Tie, Brighton, Arsenal). All three outcomes resolve to Yes if their condition is met after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Kalshi is silent on cancellation logic, implying all outcomes remain open or the market is voided entirely, which differs from Polymarket's explicit Yes-on-draw cancellation clause.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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