TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Bradley Braves and Dayton Flyers scheduled for March 18, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting at multiple thresholds, and total points over/under at numerous lines. One Kalshi market also covers first-half tie/winner outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All Polymarket and Kalshi markets consistently reference the final score including overtime, official NCAA determination, and identical postponement/cancellation protocols. The Kalshi first-half market is a distinct subset (halftime only) but does not conflict with full-game markets.
Primary resolution logic:
Official NCAA final score and box score; NCAA.com as cited in Polymarket termsCore resolution logic:
- Moneyline (Kalshi, Polymarket): Bradley Braves wins if final score Bradley > Dayton; Dayton Flyers wins if final score Dayton > Bradley
- Spread markets (Polymarket): Dayton Flyers wins spread if Dayton margin >= threshold (e.g., -1.5 means win by 2+); otherwise Bradley Braves wins
- Over/Under markets (Polymarket): Over if combined final points >= threshold + 1 (e.g., O/U 143.5 resolves Over if combined >= 144); Under if combined < threshold + 1
- First-half market (Kalshi): Resolves Yes if first half of regulation results in Tie, Dayton win, or Bradley win (all outcomes covered; effectively always Yes)
- Overtime inclusion: All markets include overtime periods in final score determination
- Postponement: Markets remain open until game is completed
- Cancellation: If game is canceled with no makeup, all markets resolve 50-50
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Overtime periods: All markets explicitly include overtime in final score calculation. No separate overtime markets create divergence.
- Game postponement: Both platforms state markets remain open until game completion. No divergence in handling.
- Game cancellation: Both platforms resolve 50-50 if game is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled.
- Kalshi first-half market: Covers only first half of regulation time. Resolves Yes for any outcome (Tie, Dayton win, Bradley win), making it a tautological market distinct from full-game markets but not contradictory.
- Over/Under threshold interpretation: All Polymarket O/U markets use consistent logic: threshold X.5 resolves Over if combined >= X+1. No platform divergence.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at the conclusion of the game on March 18, 2026 (or rescheduled date if postponed). Final score must be official per NCAA records before settlement.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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