TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On March 30 at 10:00 PM ET, the St. Louis Blues will face the San Jose Sharks in an NHL matchup. Markets cover both the moneyline winner (Blues vs. Sharks) and multiple total goals over/under thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). All resolutions are based on the final score including overtime and shootouts, with one goal added to the winning team's score in shootout scenarios.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi resolves YES if the threshold is exceeded (e.g., over 2.5 means 3+ goals), while Polymarket resolves Over if the stated threshold is met or exceeded (e.g., O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+ goals). This creates a systematic 1-goal offset across comparable markets.Hero Tip:
If you trade the same over/under line on both platforms, verify the exact threshold before settling. For example, a 5-goal final score resolves YES on Kalshi's over 4.5 market but Under on Polymarket's O/U 4.5 market. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if odds diverge significantly.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight separate over/under markets (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5) each resolving YES if the stated threshold is exceeded. For example, the over 4.5 market resolves YES if 5 or more goals are scored. Additionally, Kalshi includes a head-to-head winner market (Blues vs. Sharks) and two spread markets (Sharks -1.5, Blues -1.5), all based on final score including overtime and shootouts.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four over/under markets labeled O/U 4.5, O/U 5.5, O/U 6.5, and O/U 7.5, each resolving Over if the combined goals equal or exceed the stated threshold plus one (e.g., O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+ goals). Polymarket also includes a head-to-head winner market (Blues vs. Sharks) and one spread market (Sharks -1.5), all based on final score including overtime and shootouts with a special rule: in a shootout, one goal is added to the winning team's score for resolution purposes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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