TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg scheduled for April 4, 2026. Polymarket offers three binary markets (Draw, Wolfsburg Win, Leverkusen Win), while Kalshi offers a single ternary market covering all three outcomes. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 4, 2026, using the same primary source (official Bundesliga statistics or credible reporting consensus) and covering identical outcome scenarios.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves based on the final result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalties).
- Three mutually exclusive outcomes are possible: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win, VfL Wolfsburg win, or draw.
- If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
- If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES and win markets resolve NO; Kalshi's markets resolve based on the original outcome specification (all three outcome markets resolve YES only if that outcome occurs).
- Resolution uses official Bundesliga statistics as primary source; if unavailable within 2 hours, credible reporting consensus is used.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket treats this as a draw (draw market YES, win markets NO). Kalshi's three outcome markets each resolve YES only if that specific outcome had occurred, meaning all three would resolve NO in a true cancellation scenario.
- Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets on both platforms remain open until the match is completed and the final result is determined.
- Source Timing: Both platforms use official Bundesliga statistics as the primary source. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, both platforms fall back to credible reporting consensus.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of match statistics by Bundesliga or event organizers, or within 2 hours post-match via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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