TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
kalshi
opinion
polymarket
predict
limitless

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Total volume:
$67,040,406
Volume 24h:
$889,499
25%
Liquidity:
$10,650,353
43%
Open interest:
$9,245,748
2%

Harry Kane

all

5 markets

Kalshi

Predict

Polymarket

Limitless

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

64%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 64% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% High Projected APY: 707% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Harry Kane

Trade
64%
2%
Yes 64¢No 37¢
1¢
N/A
$2,373,535
2%
12%
$1,562,746
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

Harry Kane

Trade
64%
1%
Yes 63.8¢No 36.8¢
0.6¢
$109,234
$449,445
0.95%
11%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

Harry Kane

Trade
63%
1%
Yes 63.1¢No 37¢
0.1¢
$99,594
$5,697,218
0.94%
10%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
limitless

Harry Kane

Trade
63%
1%
Yes 63¢No 37¢
3¢
N/A
$854
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d
active
opinion

Harry Kane

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
63.3%
Yes 63.5¢No 37¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Lamine Yamal

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
N/A
$2,235,980
2%
17%
$1,303,615
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

Lamine Yamal

Trade
30%
Yes 29.9¢No 70.2¢
0.1¢
$92,566
$178,909
0.46%
14%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 29.7¢No 70.4¢
0.1¢
$124,770
$4,119,875
1%
12%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
limitless

Lamine Yamal

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢
3¢
N/A
$496
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d
active
opinion

Lamine Yamal

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
30.5%
Yes 30.3¢No 70.3¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Kylian Mbappe

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$2,456,287
3%
16%
$1,350,060
2mo 2w 4d
active
limitless

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$1,258
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d
active
predict

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
4%
Yes 3.9¢No 96.2¢
0.1¢
$162,996
$269,332
2%
13%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
4%
Yes 3.9¢No 96.2¢
0.1¢
$202,250
$3,842,999
2%
18%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

Kylian Mbappé

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.7%
Yes 4.2¢No 96.1¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Lionel Messi

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$3,154,239
1%
20%
$1,703,703
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

Lionel Messi

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4.8¢No 97.5¢
2.3¢
$32,727
$12,002
0.03%
10%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
limitless

Lionel Messi

Trade
3%
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢
2¢
N/A
$58
0%
362%
N/A
2w 3d
active
opinion

Lionel Messi

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 3.8¢No 97.3¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2.3¢
polymarket

O

Trade
3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.4¢
0.1¢
$226,895
$4,632,025
1%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

Rodri

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.8¢
0.1¢
$158,629
$158,440
3%
34%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
kalshi

Rodri

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,182,796
2%
10%
$605,201
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

Rodri

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
limitless

Rodri

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.4¢
predict

Vitinha

Trade
12%
Yes 11.9¢No 88.1¢
—
$2,376
$83,946
0%
0%
N/A
2w 1d 20h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 11.9¢No 88.1¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 25 of 109

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award, recognizing the world's best male football player. The award is based on performance over the previous calendar year and is decided by a panel of football journalists. Markets are available across multiple platforms, each offering probabilities on various players.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently resolve to the winner as determined by France Football, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is announced by the specified deadline.Primary resolution logic: France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the player officially awarded the Ballon d'Or by France Football.
  • If France Football does not announce a winner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, France Football's official decision will be followed. If France Football does not resolve the tie, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Cancellation: If the Ballon d'Or award is cancelled for 2026, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Timing: The market will resolve upon the official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner by France Football, or on January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if no winner is announced.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Kalshi

If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Declan Rice wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vitinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Olise wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bukayo Saka wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Diaz wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pedri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cristiano Ronaldo wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rayan Cherki wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jude Bellingham wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ousmane Dembele wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Desire Doue wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mohamed Salah wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cole Palmer wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scott McTominay wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuno Mendes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Fernandes wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bradley Barcola wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lautaro Martinez wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tijjani Reijnders wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Foden wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gianluigi Donnarumma wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rodri wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marcus Rashford wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Limitless

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment around the Ballon d'Or winner in 2026. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $67,040,111, with $858,323 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of probabilities for various potential winners, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on both venues. This allows for a broader and more robust prediction than relying on a single platform. The current market indicates a strong expectation for a select few contenders, as reflected in the trading activity.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to profit from balancing action on all sides. In contrast, prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd, where prices are driven by traders willing to buy or sell based on their own assessments. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as they aggregate diverse perspectives. The 1.0 difference between the two can also reflect differing levels of information and analysis incorporated into each.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can diverge due to a number of factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding potential Ballon d'Or contenders. Trading volume can also differ significantly between the two, leading to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? at 63.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? at 64.0%. These differences reflect the unique dynamics of each platform’s trading activity.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Ballon d'Or award, as announced by France Football, will determine the outcome of this market. The official announcement will be the basis for settling all open positions. Traders should monitor official sources for the announcement to understand when this market will be finalized. Volume currently stands at $67,040,111.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major injuries to leading contenders, exceptional performances in the Champions League or domestic leagues, and shifts in public opinion following award ceremonies like the FIFA World Player of the Year could all move the odds. Unexpected retirements or transfers could also have a substantial effect. Any news regarding the eligibility of players or changes to the Ballon d'Or voting criteria would also be a catalyst. Monitoring these developments is crucial for anyone actively trading in this market.