TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$99,401,033
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,177,208,320
335,484
Markets across
33,267
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,184
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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Harry Kane
all
4 markets
Predict
Polymarket
Limitless
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Latest in Sports
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
$
Description
This event group tracks prediction markets for the 2026 Ballon d'Or award winner across multiple platforms. Markets resolve based on the official winner announced by France Football, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The group includes individual binary markets for named candidates and a catch-all 'someone else' category.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All four platforms (Polymarket, Limitless, Opinion, Predict) apply identical resolution logic: official France Football announcement as the sole arbiter, with a December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline and 'Other' fallback if no winner is declared.Primary resolution logic: Official France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/) announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winnerCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the official winner announced by France Football for the 2026 Ballon d'Or award
- Exactly one candidate wins; all individual candidate markets are mutually exclusive
- The winning candidate's market resolves YES; all other individual candidate markets resolve NO
- If a 'someone else' or catch-all market exists, it resolves YES only if the winner is not among the explicitly named candidates
- If no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is officially declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No winner declared by deadline: If France Football does not announce a 2026 Ballon d'Or winner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'. This covers scenarios such as award cancellation, postponement beyond the deadline, or administrative failure.
- Unnamed winner: If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is awarded to a player not explicitly listed as a named candidate on any platform, the 'someone else' or catch-all market (e.g., Polymarket question 12) resolves YES, and all named candidate markets resolve NO.
- Placeholder candidates: Polymarket includes numerous placeholder candidates (P, R, T, V, X, Z, AA, AB, etc.). These resolve according to the same logic: if the official winner matches the placeholder's intended player, that market resolves YES; otherwise NO. Unspecified placeholders cannot be resolved and may require platform clarification or cancellation.
- Tie or co-winners: If France Football announces multiple co-winners for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, all tied candidates' individual markets resolve YES. If the award structure changes to allow multiple winners, all applicable candidate markets resolve YES.
- Award cancellation or format change: If the Ballon d'Or award is cancelled, renamed, or fundamentally restructured such that no traditional 2026 winner is declared, all markets resolve to 'Other' per the stated fallback rule.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Limitless
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/)
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader sentiment and can move quickly with new performance data or transfer news. Sportsbook odds tend to be more conservative, factoring in broader betting volumes and additional risk management. The gap between the two can sometimes reach 0.2, especially during high-profile matches or contract announcements that shift expectations for contenders.
On Polymarket and Limitless, prices can diverge because of differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? at 61.6%, while Limitless leans toward Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane at 61.4%. Each platform’s unique pool of traders interprets news and performance metrics slightly differently, which can push their odds apart until one view gains wider acceptance.
Key signals that could shift this market include major tournament performances — especially the World Cup or continental championships — as well as transfer rumors, injuries, or changes in form for top contenders. Any moment that reshapes fan and expert expectations about who might claim the honor can cause rapid price swings across platforms.
