TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Monday, April 13, 2026 between Çaykur Rizespor and Gaziantep FK.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (Rizespor win, Draw, Gaziantep win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi structures three independent markets where ALL THREE can resolve YES simultaneously depending on the match outcome. This creates a fundamental logical contradiction: the same match result cannot satisfy Polymarket's exclusivity constraint and Kalshi's independence constraint at the same time.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent across platforms. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three outcomes will resolve YES. On Kalshi, exactly one of the three outcomes will also resolve YES, but the market structure treats them as independent events rather than mutually exclusive options. If you trade across both platforms, verify your hedge logic carefully—a YES bet on Polymarket's draw market and a YES bet on Kalshi's draw market are structurally different propositions.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (Rizespor win, Draw, Gaziantep win) with mutually exclusive resolution logic. Exactly one market will resolve YES and the other two will resolve NO. The draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, while the win markets resolve NO in that scenario. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw) vs. 'this market will resolve to No' (win markets).Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three independent binary markets framed as 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' treating each outcome as a standalone event rather than mutually exclusive options. All three markets reference the same match but are logically independent; exactly one will resolve YES based on the actual result, but the market structure does not enforce mutual exclusivity in the resolution rules themselves. Key quote: 'If Rizespor wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Gaziantep wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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