TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 13 at 9:30PM ET: If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5+ and 2.5+ goal wins for either team), while Polymarket settles on total goals scored (Over/Under markets) and moneyline outcome. These represent fundamentally different resolution bases: Kalshi requires a decisive margin, Polymarket requires aggregate scoring or simple winner determination.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your outcome depends on the margin of victory (e.g., a 2-0 Avalanche win resolves YES on Kalshi's Colorado spread but does not directly resolve any Polymarket total). If you bet Polymarket Over/Under, your outcome depends only on combined goals, independent of which team wins. A 4-3 Avalanche victory resolves differently across platforms: Kalshi's margin markets may not trigger, but Polymarket's O/U 7.5 resolves Under and O/U 6.5 resolves Over. Align your bet type to your prediction.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on margin-of-victory thresholds only. Four markets trigger on either team winning by over 1.5 or over 2.5 goals: 'If Edmonton wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' (and equivalent 2.5-goal variants). No Kalshi market resolves on total goals or simple moneyline.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on three independent bases: (1) total goals scored via Over/Under thresholds at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals ('This market will resolve to Over if the Avalanche and Oilers combine to score 8 or more goals'); (2) moneyline winner ('If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to Avalanche'); and (3) spread at -1.5 for each team ('This market will resolve to Avalanche if the Avalanche win the game by 2 or more goals'). Polymarket includes both margin-based and total-based resolution logic, whereas Kalshi uses only margin.
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