TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between Athletic Club and Villarreal CF.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three separate binary markets (Athletic Club win, Draw, Villarreal win) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that each resolve YES for any of the three possible outcomes, creating a logical contradiction where all three Kalshi markets would resolve YES simultaneously.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, understand that all three markets will resolve YES regardless of the match outcome—this is not a typical three-way split. Polymarket's structure is standard: exactly one of the three markets resolves YES. Do not assume Kalshi behaves like Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket uses a mutually exclusive three-way structure where exactly one market resolves YES based on the final 90-minute result. Each market (Athletic Club win, Draw, Villarreal win) resolves NO if its specific outcome does not occur. Key quote: 'If Athletic Club wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three separate markets, each of which resolves YES if any of the three possible outcomes occurs (Tie, Bilbao win, or Villarreal win). This means all three Kalshi markets will resolve YES simultaneously after the match, regardless of result. Key quote: 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Bilbao wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Villarreal wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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