TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$222,594,306
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,033,877
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,328,926,524
576,847
Markets across
14,568
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,055
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the FA Cup match between Aston Villa FC and Newcastle United FC scheduled for February 14, 2026. The markets track whether Newcastle wins, Aston Villa wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling creates logical contradiction on Kalshi and asymmetric treatment on Polymarket. Kalshi's structure (all outcomes resolve Yes) is unresolvable if the match is canceled. Polymarket's cancellation rule differs between win markets (No) and draw market (Yes), creating settlement inconsistency across the event group.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets until cancellation protocol is unified. If Kalshi intends all outcomes to resolve Yes only upon match completion, the platform must add explicit cancellation language. If Polymarket's asymmetric cancellation is intentional, traders must price in the draw market's higher resilience to cancellation risk. Request written clarification from both platforms before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
All three mutually exclusive outcomes (Newcastle win, Tie, Aston Villa win) are defined to resolve to Yes. No cancellation clause is provided. This creates a logical impossibility: if the match is canceled, which outcome resolves to Yes? The market structure is internally contradictory for the cancellation scenario.Polymarket:
Newcastle Win market: resolves No if canceled with no makeup. Aston Villa Win market: resolves No if canceled with no makeup. Draw market: resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. This asymmetry means the three markets do not behave as a unified outcome set; the draw market is treated as a 'safe haven' in cancellation scenarios.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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