TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026 between Algeria and Guatemala.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets create a logical contradiction where every possible outcome (Algeria win, Guatemala win, or tie) resolves to YES, making the market group fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses standard binary logic where each outcome market resolves YES or NO based on that specific result, which is logically coherent.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's Algeria vs. Guatemala markets. The three Kalshi markets are logically impossible — they all resolve YES regardless of the match outcome, which violates basic market design. Polymarket's three binary markets (Algeria win, draw, Guatemala win) are properly structured and mutually exclusive. Trade only on Polymarket if you want a valid market.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: All three markets (tie, Algeria win, Guatemala win) resolve to YES for their respective outcomes, meaning every possible match result triggers YES on all three markets simultaneously. This creates a logical impossibility where the market group cannot differentiate outcomes. Key quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Algeria wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Guatemala wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with standard binary market logic: Three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the actual match outcome (Algeria win, draw, or Guatemala win), and the other two resolve NO. This is logically coherent and allows traders to differentiate outcomes. Key quote: 'If Algeria wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and similarly for draw and Guatemala win markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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