TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for April 26 at 4:00PM ET: If Rochester Americans win, the market will resolve to "Rochester Americans". If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Marlies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory, mapping both possible game outcomes (Rochester win and Toronto win) to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket provides a coherent binary outcome structure with explicit edge-case handling for postponements and cancellations.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market until the platform corrects the resolution logic. Polymarket's market is the only resolvable version. If you have exposure on Kalshi, contact support immediately to clarify whether this is a template error or intentional market design.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Both Rochester Americans win and Toronto Marlies win resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible game outcome resolves identically. No edge-case guidance provided for postponements or cancellations. Key Quote: 'If Rochester Americans wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Toronto Marlies wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Resolves to the name of the winning team (Rochester Americans or Toronto Marlies). Postponed games remain open until completion. Canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Result determined by final score including overtime and shootouts, with one goal added to winning team's score in shootout scenarios. Key Quote: 'If Rochester Americans win, the market will resolve to Rochester Americans. If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to Toronto Marlies. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.