TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for April 17 at 8:00PM ET: If Manitoba Moose win, the market will resolve to "Manitoba Moose". If Iowa Wild win, the market will resolve to "Iowa Wild". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both outcomes (Manitoba Moose wins OR Iowa Wild wins) resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating an impossible settlement condition.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken — it resolves Yes regardless of which team wins, meaning there is no No outcome possible. Stick to Polymarket, which has coherent binary logic (one winner, one loser).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Clean binary logic: Manitoba Moose win resolves to 'Manitoba Moose', Iowa Wild win resolves to 'Iowa Wild'. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) clauses. Shootout adds one goal to winner's score for resolution purposes.Kalshi:
Logical contradiction: 'If Manitoba Moose wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Iowa Wild wins...then resolves to Yes'. Both possible outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), leaving no valid No outcome. This violates binary market structure.
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