TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Aberdeen FC and Hibernian FC will compete in a Scottish Premiership match on April 11, 2026. This event group captures three mutually exclusive outcomes: an Aberdeen victory, a Hibernian victory, or a draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Aberdeen win, Draw, Hibernian win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three non-mutually-exclusive markets where all three can resolve YES simultaneously depending on the match outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: under Kalshi's structure, if Aberdeen wins, both the Aberdeen market AND the Tie market would resolve YES, which is impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent payouts. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES (probabilities must sum to 100%). On Kalshi, the three markets are outcome-dependent but structured as independent Yes/No resolutions—if you hedge by buying all three on Kalshi, you will overpay because only one outcome occurs per match. Verify your platform's settlement rules before placing cross-platform arbitrage bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one will resolve YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market is independent: 'Will Aberdeen FC win' resolves YES only if Aberdeen wins; 'Will the game end in a draw' resolves YES only if the match ends 0-0 or similar; 'Will Hibernian FC win' resolves YES only if Hibernian wins. The three outcomes are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi structures the event as three outcome-dependent markets that all resolve YES or NO based on a single match result. Market 1 resolves YES if Aberdeen wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Hibernian wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if Tie occurs. This means exactly one of the three Kalshi markets will resolve YES (matching the single match outcome), but the markets are logically dependent rather than independent binary propositions.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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