TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt scheduled for March 22, 2026. The markets capture all three possible outcomes: Mainz win, Frankfurt win, or draw. Resolution is based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Frankfurt win, Mainz win, draw), each resolving independently to YES or NO, while Kalshi presents three separate markets that each resolve to YES if their respective outcome occurs, creating a logical contradiction: on Polymarket, exactly one market resolves YES; on Kalshi, exactly one market also resolves YES, but Kalshi's market structure allows all three to theoretically resolve YES simultaneously if the platform treats them as independent affirmations rather than mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Critical: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will settle identically. On Polymarket, betting all three outcomes guarantees exactly one YES and two NOs. On Kalshi, the market structure is ambiguous—clarify with Kalshi whether their three markets are mutually exclusive (only one resolves YES) or independent (each resolves YES/NO based on its own condition). If independent, you could theoretically win all three Kalshi markets simultaneously, which is impossible on Polymarket. Verify Kalshi's settlement rules before trading across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Frankfurt win, Mainz win, or draw) will resolve YES and the other two will resolve NO. Each market explicitly states 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' enforcing mutual exclusivity. Resolution source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion, and the market scope is 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three separate markets, each with an independent YES/NO resolution condition: 'If Mainz wins... then resolves to Yes,' 'If Frankfurt wins... then resolves to Yes,' and 'If Tie wins... then resolves to Yes.' The market structure does not explicitly state mutual exclusivity or clarify whether all three markets can resolve YES simultaneously or whether only one will. Resolution source and timing are not specified in the provided rules, and the scope is stated as '90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties).'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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