TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
Volume:
$1,179,983
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil prices move up or down on March 30, 2026. Kalshi offers multiple binary markets tied to specific price thresholds (e.g., settle price above $87.99, $91.99, etc.), while Polymarket offers a single relative-movement market comparing the March 30 close to the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (YES if WTI > specific dollar amounts), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (YES if March 30 close > prior trading day close). These two approaches will produce opposite outcomes in many realistic scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same outcome across platforms. A YES on Kalshi (price above $92.99) could resolve NO on Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Conversely, a strong up-day on Polymarket could resolve NO on Kalshi if the absolute price remains below all Kalshi thresholds. Trade each platform independently based on your forecast of absolute price level (Kalshi) versus directional movement (Polymarket).Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 30, 2026 exceeds any of 35 absolute price thresholds ranging from $86.99 to $120.99. Logic: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 30, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a pure absolute-value settlement, independent of prior-day price.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the March 30, 2026 close price is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close price; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.' This is a pure relative-movement settlement, independent of absolute price level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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