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$134b

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$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
kalshi
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?

Volume:
$1,179,983

$102 or above

 - Kalshi

$102 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$102 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$148,448
N/A
N/A
$66,155
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$101 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$147,539
N/A
N/A
$61,859
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$84,344
N/A
N/A
$39,699
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$99 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$58,574
N/A
N/A
$31,284
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$98 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34,037
N/A
N/A
$19,575
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$93 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28,295
N/A
N/A
$14,078
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$95 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,030
N/A
N/A
$16,520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$96 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,586
N/A
N/A
$10,071
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$97 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,524
N/A
N/A
$10,117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$94 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,872
N/A
N/A
$8,444
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$90 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,546
N/A
N/A
$5,085
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$92 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,453
N/A
N/A
$3,852
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,257
N/A
N/A
$3,638
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$88 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,956
N/A
N/A
$3,263
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$89 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,709
N/A
N/A
$2,910
Settled
Yes
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$87 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,518
N/A
N/A
$1,386
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$103 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165,009
N/A
N/A
$91,908
Settled
No
kalshi

$104 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129,349
N/A
N/A
$66,631
Settled
No
kalshi

$107 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,746
N/A
N/A
$29,731
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,405
N/A
N/A
$37,164
Settled
No
kalshi

$108 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,204
N/A
N/A
$21,752
Settled
No
kalshi

$106 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,626
N/A
N/A
$20,879
Settled
No
kalshi

$110 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,128
N/A
N/A
$14,546
Settled
No
kalshi

$109 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,204
N/A
N/A
$12,972
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil prices move up or down on March 30, 2026. Kalshi offers multiple binary markets tied to specific price thresholds (e.g., settle price above $87.99, $91.99, etc.), while Polymarket offers a single relative-movement market comparing the March 30 close to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (YES if WTI > specific dollar amounts), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (YES if March 30 close > prior trading day close). These two approaches will produce opposite outcomes in many realistic scenarios.Hero tip: Do not assume the same outcome across platforms. A YES on Kalshi (price above $92.99) could resolve NO on Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Conversely, a strong up-day on Polymarket could resolve NO on Kalshi if the absolute price remains below all Kalshi thresholds. Trade each platform independently based on your forecast of absolute price level (Kalshi) versus directional movement (Polymarket).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 30, 2026 exceeds any of 35 absolute price thresholds ranging from $86.99 to $120.99. Logic: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 30, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a pure absolute-value settlement, independent of prior-day price.
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the March 30, 2026 close price is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close price; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.' This is a pure relative-movement settlement, independent of absolute price level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.