TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.6b

24H VOL:

$283,259,638

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,235,549,422

505,521

Markets across

13,661

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,892

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
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polymarket
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Trending

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 26?

Volume:
$461,945
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 5:00:00 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month, consistent with CME contract specifications. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 5:00:00 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 5:00:00 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official daily close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.WTIK6%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down comparison between March 26 and prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (whether settle price exceeds specific dollar levels). These produce incompatible outcomes: a price can move Up but still fail all Kalshi thresholds, or move Down while exceeding multiple Kalshi thresholds.

Hero Tip:

Do not assume the same market outcome across platforms. On Polymarket, betting YES means the March 26 close will be higher than the previous trading day's close—a relative movement bet. On Kalshi, betting YES means the settle price will exceed a specific dollar threshold—an absolute price level bet. A single WTI price on March 26 can resolve YES on one platform and NO on the other. Verify which framework matches your trading thesis before placing bets.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on directional price change between two specific dates. The market compares the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 26, 2026 against the Close price on the most recent prior trading day. It resolves UP if March 26 close is higher, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal. The resolution source is Pyth Close values at 5:00:00 PM ET, with fallback to CME Group official daily close if Pyth data is unavailable. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds on a single date. All 15 Kalshi markets resolve YES if the front-month settle price for WTI on March 26, 2026 exceeds a specific dollar threshold (ranging from $84.99 to $98.99 per barrel), and NO otherwise. Each market is independent and can resolve YES or NO based solely on whether the settle price clears its threshold. The resolution source is the front-month settle price on March 26, 2026, with no reference to prior trading days or directional movement. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 26, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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