TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 2?
Volume:
$1,269,323
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price on April 2, 2026 will exceed various price thresholds, ranging from $93.99 to $107.99 per barrel. Each threshold represents a separate binary market, with 'Yes' resolving if the settle price closes above the specified level. The resolution depends on the official front-month WTI settlement price published by the relevant commodity exchange on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (whether WTI closes above specific dollar amounts on April 2, 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (whether the April 2 close is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close). These two approaches will produce different outcomes for most realistic scenarios.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels (e.g., 'Will WTI be above $96.99?'), while Polymarket bets on direction relative to the previous day (e.g., 'Will WTI go up from yesterday?'). A market that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage without carefully mapping the prior day's closing price.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 25 absolute price thresholds ranging from $93.99 to $117.99 per barrel. The market structure implies multiple independent YES outcomes depending on which threshold is breached. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 02, 2026 is above $96.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement—UP if the April 2, 2026 close is higher than the prior trading day's close, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. The resolution source is Pyth's 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM ET, with CME Group daily close as fallback. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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