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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 14?
kalshi
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 14?

Volume:
$837,137

$90 or above

 - Kalshi

$90 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 14, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$90 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$47,296
N/A
N/A
$28,862
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,034
N/A
N/A
$26,080
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$93 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102,917
N/A
N/A
$37,335
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$99,113
N/A
N/A
$30,405
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91,915
N/A
N/A
$34,496
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,007
N/A
N/A
$29,351
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,360
N/A
N/A
$24,799
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,630
N/A
N/A
$21,085
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,117
N/A
N/A
$17,894
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,414
N/A
N/A
$15,296
Settled
No
kalshi

$99 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,518
N/A
N/A
$12,331
Settled
No
kalshi

$104 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,871
N/A
N/A
$13,127
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,618
N/A
N/A
$12,263
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,548
N/A
N/A
$8,264
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,976
N/A
N/A
$6,906
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,952
N/A
N/A
$7,691
Settled
No
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 14?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,064
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$106 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,757
N/A
N/A
$5,534
Settled
No
kalshi

$107 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,426
N/A
N/A
$5,896
Settled
No
kalshi

$108 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,241
N/A
N/A
$6,751
Settled
No
kalshi

$114 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,091
N/A
N/A
$4,753
Settled
No
kalshi

$113 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,510
N/A
N/A
$4,094
Settled
No
kalshi

$109 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,863
N/A
N/A
$3,346
Settled
No
kalshi

$112 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,403
N/A
N/A
$3,022
Settled
No
kalshi

$110 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,945
N/A
N/A
$2,286
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price on April 14, 2026 will close above specific price thresholds. The Kalshi platform offers 25 distinct binary markets, each with a different strike price ranging from $89.99 to $113.99 per barrel, allowing traders to express granular views on oil price direction and magnitude. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement ambiguity between platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if WTI settles above any of 25 absolute price thresholds on April 14, 2026, while Polymarket resolves based on a relative day-over-day price comparison (Up vs Down vs 50-50). These are incompatible settlement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price.Hero tip: If you trade this event, understand that Kalshi and Polymarket are NOT equivalent bets. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels (e.g., above $89.99). On Polymarket, you are betting on whether April 14's close is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (price above $89.99) could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if April 14's price is lower than April 11's price. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on April 14, 2026 exceeds any of 25 absolute price thresholds ranging from $89.99 to $113.99 per barrel. Uses absolute settlement value as the sole resolution criterion. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 14, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if the April 14, 2026 close price (Active Month WTI futures, Pyth 4:59 PM ET close) is higher than the prior trading day's close; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Uses relative day-over-day price movement, not absolute levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.