TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 14?
Volume:
$837,137
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price on April 14, 2026 will close above specific price thresholds. The Kalshi platform offers 25 distinct binary markets, each with a different strike price ranging from $89.99 to $113.99 per barrel, allowing traders to express granular views on oil price direction and magnitude. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement ambiguity between platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if WTI settles above any of 25 absolute price thresholds on April 14, 2026, while Polymarket resolves based on a relative day-over-day price comparison (Up vs Down vs 50-50). These are incompatible settlement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price.Hero Tip:
If you trade this event, understand that Kalshi and Polymarket are NOT equivalent bets. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels (e.g., above $89.99). On Polymarket, you are betting on whether April 14's close is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (price above $89.99) could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if April 14's price is lower than April 11's price. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on April 14, 2026 exceeds any of 25 absolute price thresholds ranging from $89.99 to $113.99 per barrel. Uses absolute settlement value as the sole resolution criterion. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 14, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if the April 14, 2026 close price (Active Month WTI futures, Pyth 4:59 PM ET close) is higher than the prior trading day's close; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Uses relative day-over-day price movement, not absolute levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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