TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 10?
Volume:
$852,638
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price will close above various threshold levels on April 10, 2026. The markets are structured as a series of price-level gates, where each threshold represents a distinct binary outcome (Yes if price exceeds threshold, No otherwise). Traders are essentially betting on oil price direction and magnitude on a specific settlement date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if WTI settle price exceeds any of 25 absolute price thresholds on April 10, 2026, while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (Up/Down compared to the prior trading day's close). These are incompatible settlement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying market.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels (e.g., will WTI close above $87.99?), while Polymarket bets on directional movement (will WTI close higher than the previous day?). A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (price above threshold) could resolve NO on Polymarket (if price moved down from prior day), and vice versa. Do not assume your position transfers across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on April 10, 2026 exceeds any of 25 absolute price thresholds ranging from $86.99 to $110.99 per barrel. Logic: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 10, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' This is an absolute-level settlement model with no reference to prior-day prices.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the WTI Active Month close on April 10, 2026 is higher than the close on the most recent prior trading day; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.' This is a relative-movement settlement model dependent on prior-day comparison.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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