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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 1?
kalshi
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 1?

Volume:
$865,036

$99 or above

 - Kalshi

$99 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 1, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$99 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$125,763
N/A
N/A
$77,821
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$117,407
N/A
N/A
$51,602
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$98 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$84,106
N/A
N/A
$48,095
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$96 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$80,002
N/A
N/A
$54,265
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$97 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71,627
N/A
N/A
$44,358
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$101 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96,824
N/A
N/A
$41,929
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,644
N/A
N/A
$46,200
Settled
No
kalshi

$104 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71,994
N/A
N/A
$35,601
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,654
N/A
N/A
$27,017
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,241
N/A
N/A
$15,912
Settled
No
kalshi

$106 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,330
N/A
N/A
$12,360
Settled
No
kalshi

$107 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,630
N/A
N/A
$9,067
Settled
No
kalshi

$110 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,691
N/A
N/A
$5,875
Settled
No
kalshi

$109 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
$2,496
Settled
No
kalshi

$108 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,205
N/A
N/A
$4,532
Settled
No
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price on April 1, 2026 closes above specific price thresholds. Kalshi offers 15 distinct binary markets at different strike prices ($95.99–$109.99), allowing traders to bet on granular price levels. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement divergence.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logics for the same event. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (15 separate YES conditions at different price levels), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (UP if April 1 close > prior trading day close). These produce mutually exclusive outcomes in most realistic scenarios.Hero tip: Do not assume the same bet resolves identically across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute WTI price levels on April 1, 2026. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether the price moved up or down relative to the previous trading day. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., price > $97.99) could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Verify your platform choice before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES based on 15 separate absolute price thresholds for WTI front-month settle price on April 1, 2026, ranging from above $95.99 to above $109.99. All 15 conditions trigger YES independently; any single threshold breach results in YES resolution. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 01, 2026 is above $97.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP or DOWN based on relative price movement—comparing the April 1, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close using Pyth 1-minute candle data at 5:00 PM ET. Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal or if no trade occurs. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.