TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 1?
Volume:
$865,036
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether WTI Crude Oil's front-month settle price on April 1, 2026 closes above specific price thresholds. Kalshi offers 15 distinct binary markets at different strike prices ($95.99–$109.99), allowing traders to bet on granular price levels. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement divergence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logics for the same event. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (15 separate YES conditions at different price levels), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (UP if April 1 close > prior trading day close). These produce mutually exclusive outcomes in most realistic scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same bet resolves identically across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute WTI price levels on April 1, 2026. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether the price moved up or down relative to the previous trading day. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., price > $97.99) could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Verify your platform choice before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES based on 15 separate absolute price thresholds for WTI front-month settle price on April 1, 2026, ranging from above $95.99 to above $109.99. All 15 conditions trigger YES independently; any single threshold breach results in YES resolution. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 01, 2026 is above $97.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP or DOWN based on relative price movement—comparing the April 1, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close using Pyth 1-minute candle data at 5:00 PM ET. Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal or if no trade occurs. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.