TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Trump sign an executive order on...?
Total volume:
$104,688
Volume 24h:
$704
36%
Liquidity:
$12,373
1%
Open interest:
$2,482
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers whether Donald Trump will sign executive orders during May 2026, with markets spanning specific dates (Polymarket) and aggregate thresholds over defined periods (Kalshi). The core question is identical across platforms: did Trump execute formal executive orders on specified dates or within specified windows?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket restricts resolution to formal executive orders only, explicitly excluding other executive actions. Kalshi uses the broader term 'presidential actions' in its May 24-30 markets and contains seven redundant threshold conditions that will all resolve identically, creating logical fragmentation and potential interpretation disputes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket offers precise, binary daily markets with a strict formal EO definition. Kalshi's May 24-30 aggregate markets are logically redundant (thresholds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 15 all trigger on the same underlying count) and use undefined 'presidential actions' language. Traders should: (1) use Polymarket for formal EO certainty; (2) recognize Kalshi's redundant thresholds mean only one will resolve Yes (the lowest threshold met); (3) request Kalshi clarification on whether proclamations and memoranda count as 'presidential actions.'Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: 32 binary daily markets (May 1-31, 2026) each asking if Trump signs a formal executive order on that specific date. Resolution requires text published on whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/ or press pool by 12:00 PM ET the following day. Explicit rule: 'Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.'
- Kalshi: 11 markets with mixed definitions: Markets 1-3 ask about 'executive orders' during May 3-9 (thresholds >0, >1, >2); Markets 4-11 ask about 'presidential actions' during May 24-30 (thresholds >=1, >=2, >=3, >=4, >=5, >=7, >=10, >=15), checked at whitehouse.gov on May 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. No explicit exclusion of non-EO actions; 'presidential actions' is undefined and broader.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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