TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Total volume:
$242,048
Volume 24h:
$3,031
16%
Liquidity:
$35,420
65%
Open interest:
$15,584
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different deadline dates and lack consistent time-of-day specifications. Kalshi references an undefined "Issuance" date and includes five separate deadline dates, while Polymarket specifies three discrete calendar dates with explicit 11:59 PM ET cutoffs.Hero Tip:
Request clarification on Kalshi's "Issuance" date definition. For Polymarket, rely on the explicit 11:59 PM ET cutoff. Cross-reference Senate.gov official passage records to confirm exact timestamp. If passage occurs between markets' deadlines, one may resolve Yes while the other resolves No.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Five separate markets with dates May 16, May 20, May 23, Jun 6, and Jun 14, 2026. Resolution requires passage "after Issuance" and by each date. No explicit time-of-day cutoff. Ambiguity: what is the Issuance date, and does passage on the deadline date itself satisfy "by" that date?
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with dates May 15, May 22, and May 31, 2026. Resolution requires passage by 11:59 PM ET on each date. Primary source: official US Government information; secondary: credible reporting consensus. Explicit time precision eliminates ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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