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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will S&P 500 (SPX) finish week of March 16 above___?
polymarket
kalshi

Will S&P 500 (SPX) finish week of March 16 above___?

Volume:
$163,210

6,500 to 6,524.9999

 - Kalshi

6,500 to 6,524.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 20, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,500 to 6,524.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,039
N/A
N/A
$4,819
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,550

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,775

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

6,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,625

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,925

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5,850

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 to 6,549.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,737
N/A
N/A
$6,700
Settled
No
kalshi

6,600 to 6,624.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,564
N/A
N/A
$6,046
Settled
No
kalshi

6,550 to 6,574.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,457
N/A
N/A
$5,592
Settled
No
kalshi

6,475 to 6,499.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,059
N/A
N/A
$4,916
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 to 6,699.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,181
N/A
N/A
$4,988
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 to 6,649.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,375
N/A
N/A
$5,103
Settled
No
kalshi

6,575 to 6,599.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,132
N/A
N/A
$3,657
Settled
No
kalshi

6,450 to 6,474.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,530
N/A
N/A
$4,093
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 to 6,724.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,463
N/A
N/A
$4,096
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 to 6,874.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,383
N/A
N/A
$4,899
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 to 6,674.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,186
N/A
N/A
$4,079
Settled
No
kalshi

6,299.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,011
N/A
N/A
$2,838
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 to 6,749.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,873
N/A
N/A
$3,610
Settled
No
kalshi

6,775 to 6,799.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,666
N/A
N/A
$3,250
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 to 6,899.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,350
N/A
N/A
$3,278
Settled
No
kalshi

6,425 to 6,449.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,710
N/A
N/A
$2,573
Settled
No
kalshi

6,400 to 6,424.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,566
N/A
N/A
$2,500
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Description

These markets collectively ask whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will close above various price thresholds on Friday, March 20, 2026 (the final trading day of the week of March 16–20). Polymarket offers seven binary 'above/below' contracts at different strike prices, while Kalshi offers a series of narrow range-based contracts that collectively cover the entire price spectrum from below 6,300 to above 7,000.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Price range incompatibility and structural mismatch. Polymarket covers SPX 5,550–6,000; Kalshi covers SPX 6,300–7,000+. The platforms do not overlap and measure different market scenarios.Hero tip: These are separate, non-overlapping markets. Polymarket is for traders expecting SPX to remain in the 5,500s–6,000s range by March 20, 2026. Kalshi is for traders expecting SPX to reach 6,300 or higher. Choose the platform whose price range aligns with your macro forecast. Do not attempt to hedge between them.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven binary contracts, each asking if SPX closes ABOVE a specific threshold (5,550, 5,625, 5,700, 5,775, 5,850, 5,925, 6,000) on Friday, March 20, 2026. Resolution source: Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) official closing price. Fallback: last valid on-exchange trade price if no official close published. Key Quote: 'the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price.'
  • Kalshi: 30 mutually exclusive range-based contracts covering SPX close on March 20, 2026, from below 6,300 to above 7,000 in 25–50 point increments (e.g., 6,300–6,324.9999, 6,325–6,349.9999, etc.). Each range resolves YES if the closing price falls within that band. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 20, 2026 is between [range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.