TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) finish week of March 16 above___?
Volume:
$163,210
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets collectively ask whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will close above various price thresholds on Friday, March 20, 2026 (the final trading day of the week of March 16–20). Polymarket offers seven binary 'above/below' contracts at different strike prices, while Kalshi offers a series of narrow range-based contracts that collectively cover the entire price spectrum from below 6,300 to above 7,000.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Price range incompatibility and structural mismatch. Polymarket covers SPX 5,550–6,000; Kalshi covers SPX 6,300–7,000+. The platforms do not overlap and measure different market scenarios.Hero Tip:
These are separate, non-overlapping markets. Polymarket is for traders expecting SPX to remain in the 5,500s–6,000s range by March 20, 2026. Kalshi is for traders expecting SPX to reach 6,300 or higher. Choose the platform whose price range aligns with your macro forecast. Do not attempt to hedge between them.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Seven binary contracts, each asking if SPX closes ABOVE a specific threshold (5,550, 5,625, 5,700, 5,775, 5,850, 5,925, 6,000) on Friday, March 20, 2026. Resolution source: Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) official closing price. Fallback: last valid on-exchange trade price if no official close published. Key Quote: 'the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price.'
- Kalshi: 30 mutually exclusive range-based contracts covering SPX close on March 20, 2026, from below 6,300 to above 7,000 in 25–50 point increments (e.g., 6,300–6,324.9999, 6,325–6,349.9999, etc.). Each range resolves YES if the closing price falls within that band. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 20, 2026 is between [range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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