TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Total volume:
$1,241,815
Volume 24h:
$6,670
16%
Liquidity:
$0
0%
Open interest:
$551,461
0.52%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian monarchist opposition figure, will physically enter and be present within Iran's terrestrial territory during 2026. Multiple prediction markets across platforms offer different deadline windows (March 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026) to capture the timing of a potential visit.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Predict platforms apply identical core logic: physical terrestrial entry into Iran triggers YES resolution, with differences only in deadline windows (March 31, June 30, December 31, 2026) rather than in the definition of the event itself.
Primary resolution logic:
Consensus of credible reporting (news sources, official statements, verified travel documentation)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution requires Reza Pahlavi to physically enter and be present within Iran's terrestrial geographic boundaries
- Entry into Iranian airspace or maritime territory alone does NOT trigger resolution
- Each market variant has a distinct deadline: March 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source is consensus of credible reporting; no single official oracle is specified
- YES resolution occurs if visit occurs between market creation (March 2, 2026) and the stated deadline; otherwise NO
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Airspace/Maritime Entry Only: If Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory but does not physically set foot on terrestrial Iran, the market resolves NO. Both platforms explicitly exclude these scenarios.
- Reporting Consensus Failure: If credible reporting sources conflict or no consensus emerges on whether a visit occurred, resolution may be delayed or require adjudication by platform operators. The markets do not specify a tiebreaker mechanism.
- Multiple Deadline Markets: Three separate markets exist with different deadlines. An earlier visit (e.g., by March 31) would resolve YES on all three markets; a visit between June 30 and December 31 would resolve YES only on the December 31 market.
- Market Creation Timing: Predict markets were created on March 2, 2026. Any visit before this date would not count. The March 31 market has only a 29-day window from creation.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on the deadline date for each market variant (March 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET), or immediately upon credible reporting of a visit if it occurs before the deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.