TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Total volume:
$335,465
Volume 24h:
$573
87%
Liquidity:
$20,036
3%
Open interest:
$169,291
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog by specified deadlines in 2026. The core question is identical across platforms, but the resolution mechanics and scope differ fundamentally.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Scope and Jurisdiction Mismatch. Polymarket explicitly targets Netanyahu and Israeli presidential clemency; Kalshi's rules reference an unnamed President and pardon counts with no Netanyahu condition, suggesting a U.S. presidential pardon volume market. The two markets are logically incompatible and measure different events.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. Polymarket resolves on a single Netanyahu clemency event; Kalshi resolves on aggregate pardon counts. Confirm Kalshi's actual jurisdiction and underlying asset immediately. If Kalshi is a U.S. market, it should not be grouped with the Netanyahu event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Netanyahu-specific market. Resolves Yes if Netanyahu receives a pardon, commutation, or clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: official Israeli government information and credible reporting consensus. Scope: one individual, one jurisdiction, one outcome.
- Kalshi: Aggregate pardon count market. Eight rules covering all possible counts (0, 1, 2, 3-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25+) of persons pardoned/commuted/reprieved by an unnamed President before June 1, 2026. All rules resolve to Yes. No Netanyahu-specific condition. Scope: unclear jurisdiction, aggregate outcomes, no individual target.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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