TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Who will Trump speak to in May?
Total volume:
$994,614
Volume 24h:
$10,185
75%
Liquidity:
$128,938
7%
Open interest:
$31,255
1%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Donald Trump will have verbal communication (in-person, phone, or video) with 21 specific individuals during May 2026. Markets span Polymarket (21 questions) and Kalshi (20 questions), with overlapping subjects including world leaders, business figures, and political actors.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Timeframe scope mismatch (Polymarket: May 1-31 with 3-day confirmation deadline vs. Kalshi: before Jun 1 with no deadline) and source hierarchy divergence (Polymarket specifies media-first with conditional statement rules; Kalshi silent on sources).Hero Tip:
For markets on both platforms covering the same individual (Zelenskyy, Pahlavi, Putin, Starmer, Xi Jinping, Carney, Machado), communications confirmed after June 3, 2026 ET will resolve Yes on Kalshi but No on Polymarket. Prioritize early media confirmation and track reporting timestamps in UTC/ET. Kalshi positions offer longer resolution windows but less source clarity.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Strict May 1-31, 2026 window (11:59 PM ET). Resolution requires credible media consensus or verified statements from either party/representatives within 3 calendar days after May 31. Statements only conclusive if unambiguous, uncontradicted by other party or media by third calendar day. Key Quote: 'If the date/time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Broader window: before Jun 1, 2026 (implicit grace period into early June). No explicit source hierarchy, confirmation deadline, or statement verification rules provided. Treats phone calls and in-person meetings identically. Key Quote: 'If Donald Trump and [Individual] meet (including phone calls) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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