TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of April 6 2026?
Volume:
$34,384
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will reach specific price levels during the week of April 6, 2026. Polymarket offers binary YES/NO markets on whether intraweek lows or highs will be touched at various thresholds, while Kalshi offers binary markets on a single closing price at a specific moment (April 10, 2026 at 5 PM EDT).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement events: Polymarket resolves on whether any intraweek extreme (high or low) is touched during the entire week of April 6-10, 2026, while Kalshi resolves on the closing price of a single 1-minute candle on April 10, 2026 at exactly 5 PM EDT. Additionally, Kalshi's price thresholds are substantially lower than Polymarket's, suggesting possible contract or unit differences.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move in lockstep. Polymarket rewards early-week price spikes (even if reversed by Friday), while Kalshi only cares about the 5 PM close on April 10. A bullish trader could profit on Polymarket high-touch markets while losing on Kalshi close-above markets if the rally fades. Cross-check contract specifications and units before arbitraging across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Measures whether any 1-minute candle during the entire week of April 6-10, 2026 touches specified price levels (lows or highs). Resolution uses Pyth 1-minute candle data with CME daily extremes as fallback. Thresholds range from $2.20 to $3.50. Key Quote: 'at any point during the week of April 6 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final Low price equal to or below the listed price.'
- Kalshi: Measures only the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick on April 10, 2026 at exactly 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if close is above threshold. Thresholds range from $0.999 to $4.899. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on April 10, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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