TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit Week of April 13 2026?
Volume:
$44,980
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess whether the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) will reach specific price levels during the week of April 13, 2026. Polymarket uses intraday 1-minute candle highs/lows during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET), while Kalshi measures the end-of-day index value on April 17, 2026 (Friday of that week) across 100-point bands. The core tension: Polymarket tracks the QQQ ETF's intraweek extremes; Kalshi tracks the Nasdaq 100 index's closing level on a single day.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different instruments and time periods: Polymarket tracks QQQ (ETF) intraweek price extremes during April 13-17, 2026, while Kalshi tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) end-of-day close on April 17, 2026 only. The instruments have different price levels, the Kalshi markets cover only a single day's close rather than intraweek highs/lows, and Kalshi's resolution logic is incomplete (does not specify what happens if the close falls outside all 30 defined ranges).Hero Tip:
Do not assume QQQ price levels map to Nasdaq 100 Index levels—they are different instruments with different price scales. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether an intraweek extreme is touched at any point during regular hours; on Kalshi, you are betting on a single end-of-day index close. If you trade both, understand that a QQQ high of $635 does not imply the Nasdaq 100 Index will close in any specific Kalshi range on April 17.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers 17 binary markets on whether QQQ (the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF) will touch specific price levels (highs: $615–$645; lows: $580–$610) at any point during the week of April 13–17, 2026, during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET). Resolution uses 1-minute candle data from Pyth, with fallback to official daily high/low if Pyth data is unavailable. Each market resolves YES if the target price is reached or exceeded (for highs) or reached or undercut (for lows) on any single 1-minute candle during the week.
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers 30 markets based on the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 Index (not QQQ) close on April 17, 2026 only. Each market resolves YES if the index close falls within a specific 100-point range (e.g., 23600–23699.9900, 24000–24099.9900, etc.). The resolution logic covers ranges from below 23600 to above 26399.9900, but does not explicitly state what happens if the close falls outside all defined ranges or in a gap.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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